Job Losses Due to Artificial Intelligence

“Companies, particularly in the manufacturing sector, anticipate a structural shift that will be accelerated by AI,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at the ifo Institute. Only 5.2 per cent of companies expect job growth as a result of AI, while two-thirds foresee no change. “At present, companies are exploring which areas can benefit from productivity gains through AI. It will take a few more years before this translates into measurable effects on the labour market.”

Where job cuts are expected, the affected companies anticipate an average reduction of around 8 per cent, according to Wohlrabe. In manufacturing, more than one-third of firms expect to reduce their workforce. In the retail sector, the figure is also significantly above the national average, at just under 30 per cent. In contrast, over 80 per cent of construction companies believe AI will have no impact on their staffing levels.

Growth in the IT Sector

At the same time, positive employment trends are emerging: In technology-related services such as IT and information processing, some companies are already anticipating growth – in some cases with projected increases of over 10 per cent.

"AI will not only serve as a tool for streamlining processes, but also as a catalyst for new job profiles," says Wohlrabe. "So far, the impact of artificial intelligence on employment has been moderate – but in the longer term, AI could reshape the German labour market."
He sees the main challenge as translating the resulting productivity gains into widespread prosperity – without causing major disruption to specific occupational groups.